Historical Chart of Home Values Shows Extent of the Housing Bubble

This chart, originally developed by economist Robert J. Schiller, then updated by Steve Barry, shows the recent housing bubble in dramatic fashion. This image is linked from the original at The Big Picture — click through for the original:

100-year chart of home values

AB — 15 April 2011

Advertisements

‘American Dream’ Film: Communicating Economic Ideas Dramatically

I’m interested as much in the way ideas get communicated as the ideas themselves. What brings this to mind is the animated film I saw today called The American Dream. This is the most creative expression I’ve seen of the more non-mainstream view of economics — the idea that the Federal Reserve is an evil conspiracy against America.

Some of the film’s explanations are less controversial — how banks manipulate the economy and create what amounts to a house of cards that is supposedly too big to fail. But the film does move into some uncomfortable areas, almost advocating violent revolution — patriotic language and images are used to whip up sentiments. Still, as I said, the most interesting thing to me is the innovative presentation of the creators’ arguments.

By the way, I also like Chris Martenson’s “Crash Course in Economics” — kind of a ‘chalk-talk’ approach — as another example of creative presentation of economics ideas.

The American Dream is a half-hour film available in two parts on YouTube.

AB — 25 January 2011

Disaster Housing: Solutions Conceived by the Hexayurt Project

Vinay Gupta of the Hexayurt Project has done much work in the area of emergency housing, something I have explored in some postings here at Bubbleconomics — see “MSF’s ‘Plug and Play Hospital’ in Haiti,” “Haiti Disaster: Housing for When the Bubble Pops,” and “Where will people live after the Big Bubble pops?

Gupta articulates the need for inexpensive, rapidly-deployable solutions for housing in emergencies in his article “Hexayurt Country.”

In an infographic called “Six Ways to Die,” he sketches out a map of the infrastructures that keep us all alive and illustrates how lives are threatened when those infrastructures fail or are disrupted.

Built around that “Six Ways to Die” framework is a presentation called “Dealing in Security: Understanding Vital Services and How They Keep You Safe.”

The Hexayurt is a sheltering solution made from flat panels that can be quickly and cheaply constructed but are much more durable than emergency tents. Here is a very useful video, “Ending Poverty With Open Hardware,” in which Gupta explains some important concepts about how to prevent loss of life using open technology.

AB — 23 January 2010

Haiti Disaster: Housing for When the Bubble Pops

Seeing the devastating effects on the lives of the people in Port au Prince, Haiti, in the wake of the recent earthquake emphasizes the potential value of emergency housing solutions for recovery.

In such a disaster, survivors are thrust into chaos and forced to live in unstable, unsanitary conditions, seeking out housing any way they can. It seems to me this suggests a need and opportunity for emergency housing solutions that can be quickly and massively deployed by governments or NGOs.

An article in Wired from October 2007 includes a gallery of interesting designs for such situations — see “Instant Housing and Designing for Disaster.”

Just having the housing technology, though, isn’t enough, as demonstrated by the difficulties of getting medical and food assistance to the people in Port au Prince. The problem isn’t necessarily getting relief resources in the first place, but in getting them implemented and distributed.

Deploying emergency housing for potentially hundreds of thousands of people would require a tremendous amount of advance expenditure and organizational infrastructure. So the solution that’s called for is more along the lines of an urban-planning project rather than just an architectural problem.

Suppose it were possible to manufacture in advance the components of a massive portable community that could be stored in advance and deployed rapidly anywhere in the world?

Just thinking out loud — see my previous article, “Where Will People Live After the Big Bubble Pops?

AB — 19 January 2010

Where will people live after the Big Bubble pops?

If the Big Bubble proposition turns out to be true, the world could be faced with hundreds of millions or even billions of people homeless or under-housed. Where might people live if they lose their incomes and can’t pay rents and mortgages?

Some might have the ability to live off the land, join with relatives, or form intentional communities. But it’s easy to imagine large displaced populations lacking housing.

(Note: I don’t necessarily think the Big Bubble is going to pop inevitably. It’s entirely possible that those who are trying to keep the economy running will find ways to do so in spite of the human and environmental consequences. Bubbleconomics is in the way of an exploratory project, so the ideas presented here are tentative.)

When it comes to housing, I think it’s useful to look at alternatives that are emerging in various corners of the earth where people are already suffering from scarce resources. Interesting solutions often arise from such conditions.

Recently I learned about a housing solution being developed by Tata Group, a $62.5 billion Indian company that operates in multiple businesses, including IT, communications, energy, chemicals, and other industries. Tata is the company that has developed the Nano, an auto that sells for as low as US $2,800.

In that same spirit, Tata Housing is building a “nano-housing” complex consisting of very small units designed for affordability. The project, called Shubh Griha, is in Boisar, a suburb accessible to Mumbai. The living units advertised by Tata are 283 square feet, 360 square feet, and 465 square feet.

Here’s a link to a floor plan for the smallest unit:

From Tata’s price list, it looks as if the smallest unit would sell for about 400,000 rupees, or about US $8,500. Tata describes Shubh Griha as “an integrated township with all the basic amenities” and “a clean and green environment.” The development is planned with a footprint allowing 70 percent devoted to common area.

In the U.S., “tent cities” have received some press over the past year as increasing numbers of people become homeless. In some areas, such communities have received assistance from governmental and non-profit organizations — for example, see information here about tent cities in the Seattle, Wash., area. Dignity Village in Portland, Ore., is an example of a former tent city that has evolved into an established intentional community with its own administrative and security infrastructure.

Here’s a link to an image of one of Dignity Village’s common buildings:

The organization says it has five basic rules:

  1. No violence to yourself or others.
  2. No theft.
  3. No alcohol, illegal drugs or drug paraphernalia on the property or within a one block area.
  4. No continuous disruptive behavior.
  5. You must contribute to the maintenance and operation of the Village.

One of the scariest outcomes from lack of housing is the development of huge “shantytowns” around many large cities in the world. These communities are called favelas in Brazil, which lays claim to some of the best-known of such areas. Here is a link to an image of Favela de Rocinha in Rio de Janeiro:

A few years ago I read in Awake! magazine about the cage apartments in Hong Kong, where where over 53,000 people live, according to Christopher DeWolf writing on his blog UrbanPhoto — see his article “Life in a Cage.”

In Awake! (“A Day in My Life in Crowded Hong Kong,” Nov. 8, 1991), Kin Keung writes about

thousands who live in Mong Kok district and who rent “cage apartments,” stacked three high and measuring six feet [1.8 m] long by 30 inches [0.8 m] deep and 30 inches [0.8 m] high. They have space for a mattress and a few personal belongings. No furniture.

thousands who live in Mong Kok district and who rent “cage apartments,” stacked three high and measuring six feet [1.8 m] long by 30 inches [0.8 m] deep and 30 inches [0.8 m] high. They have space for a mattress and a few personal belongings. No furniture.

Here is a link to DeWolf’s photo of someone living in a cage apartment:

A non-profit organization called EDAR Inc. has developed a portable shelter for the homeless called the EDAR unit. Here is a link to a video that demonstrates how EDARs are used:

All of this is written not to scare the pants off of people, but to point to the issues that arise for individuals when their personal bubbles deflate, and what could happen to masses of people worldwide if the Big Bubble collapses.

The need for housing alternatives points to an area where innovation could benefit millions and where an opportunity exists for governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, and entrepreneurs.

AB — 6 June 2009