Energy Economist Says Oil Will Peak Sooner Than Expected

In an interview with The Independent, Dr. Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency (IEA) says that most of the world’s major oil fields are already past their peak production — see today’s article, “Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast,” by Steve O’Connor.

When O’Connor asked Birol to explain the concept of “peak oil,” Birol replied:

This is the point when the maximum rate at which oil is extracted reaches a peak because of technical and geological constraints, with global production going into decline from then on.

The UK Government, along with many other governments, has believed that peak oil will not occur until well into the 21st Century, at least not until after 2030. The International Energy Agency believes peak oil will come perhaps by 2020. But it also believes that we are heading for an even earlier “oil crunch” because demand after 2010 is likely to exceed dwindling supplies.

For more information on peak oil, see my previous blog post “Peak Oil Notes.”

AB — 3 August 2009

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